Quick Summary
AI and automation are projected to eliminate 10.4 million jobs in the US by 2030, representing a 6.1 percent decrease in the workforce. This forecast, provided by Forrester analyst J.P. Gownder, highlights the structural nature of these job losses compared to cyclical losses seen during economic downturns. While AI may augment one in five roles, the potential for over-automation poses risks to employee experiences and company reputations.
The Securityish Brief
Forrester’s analysis indicates that by 2030, AI and automation could lead to a loss of 10.4 million jobs in the US, which is about 6.1 percent of the workforce. J.P. Gownder, a vice president at Forrester, emphasizes that these job losses are structural and permanent, unlike the cyclical job losses experienced during the Great Recession when 8.7 million jobs were lost. The analysis suggests that while AI will influence the job market, it is unlikely to replace large segments of the workforce immediately.
The report forecasts a ‘real but modest impact’ from AI between 2025 and 2030, indicating that labor productivity must significantly increase for AI to replace human talent at scale. Instead, Forrester anticipates that AI will augment one in five roles by the end of this period, necessitating investment in staff training to adapt to new technologies.
Several companies, including Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow, are already implementing AI solutions that may lead to workforce reductions. However, there are concerns about the risks of over-automating roles, which could result in costly pullbacks and damage to company reputations. Forrester predicts that 55 percent of corporations may regret their decision to pursue aggressive AI-driven job cuts.
In 2025, Forrester estimates there will be one million layoffs in the US, with some attributed to AI. Many organizations are considering significant layoffs without having a mature AI application ready to fill the roles, suggesting that financial motivations often drive these decisions.
Since Forrester’s previous forecast in 2023, the emergence of agentic AI has changed the landscape, with generative AI now accounting for 50 percent of jobs lost to automation. This shift represents a nearly fourfold increase in the number of positions influenced by AI compared to earlier predictions.
Despite these changes, Forrester reassures that we are not facing an imminent AI job apocalypse. The expectation is that most work will still be performed by humans over the next five years, even as AI takes over specific workflows and tasks.
Key Takeaways
- Monitor industry trends to understand how AI might impact your job role in the coming years.
- Invest in training programs to enhance your skills in areas that AI is less likely to replace.
- Stay informed about your organization’s AI initiatives and how they may affect workforce dynamics.
- Encourage discussions within your company about the responsible implementation of AI to avoid over-automation risks.
- Evaluate your career options and consider diversifying your skill set to remain competitive in an evolving job market.
Key Terms & Concepts
- Agentic AI: In this article, agentic AI refers to advanced AI systems capable of making decisions and performing tasks autonomously.
- Generative AI: Generative AI in this context refers to AI technologies that can create content or solutions based on learned patterns.
Read the original article here: https://go.theregister.com/feed/www.theregister.com/2026/01/13/ai_us_jobs_2030/
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